Probability and Cost | An industries disservice to the American People

Part one

By
Phil Simoncelli
Phil Simoncelli
Introduction
Finding a solution
Part 1
Probability and cost
Part 2
Your asset exposure
Part 3
Self-insuring
Part 4
LTC policy "musts"
Part 5
Types of care
Part 6
Costs and underwriting
Part 7
Alternative strategies
Part 8
Children as caregivers

Most insurers and their representatives can regurgitate well-known statistics of probability. For example, Fidelity recently reported that people over the age of 65 have a 70% chance of needing long term care coverage.  However, looking in the rear-view mirror is only one way to evaluate the risk.  It is more practical to understand the challenges we face tomorrow, as opposed to two-year-old statistics.


According to MedicalConstructionData.com, there are currently 64 senior care facilities (at the time of publication) under construction in Illinois. This number only indicates new facilities and facility expansions in the private (for profit) sector and not facilities being built by the state.   The costs range between $5 million and $125 million per facility.  

Therefore, conservatively speaking, corporations are investing $1.6 billion dollars in business ventures predicated on Americans’ need for long term care.  It is likely, if not certain, that they have invested large dollars into research before making this large investment.


Equally important to understanding the probability, is understanding the cost implications that we face as citizens.  The federal government has invested time and resources collecting data for the American consumer.  Their website informs us that the monthly cost for a long term care facility in Chicagoland to be $9,353 a month and the typical stay in a senior living facility is a little over three years.  

Based on the ever-increasing stay and the monthly expenses, the average married couple should have $673,416 saved to offset the risk of LTC needs in addition to their retirement savings.


Probability and Cost

By

In Their Own Words

Most insurers and their representatives can regurgitate well-known statistics of probability. For example, Fidelity recently reported that people over the age of 65 have a 70% chance of needing long term care coverage.  However, looking in the rear-view mirror is only one way to evaluate the risk.  It is more practical to understand the challenges we face tomorrow, as opposed to two-year-old statistics.


According to MedicalConstructionData.com, there are currently 64 senior care facilities (at the time of publication) under construction in Illinois. This number only indicates new facilities and facility expansions in the private (for profit) sector and not facilities being built by the state.   The costs range between $5 million and $125 million per facility.  

Therefore, conservatively speaking, corporations are investing $1.6 billion dollars in business ventures predicated on Americans’ need for long term care.  It is likely, if not certain, that they have invested large dollars into research before making this large investment.


Equally important to understanding the probability, is understanding the cost implications that we face as citizens.  The federal government has invested time and resources collecting data for the American consumer.  Their website informs us that the monthly cost for a long term care facility in Chicagoland to be $9,353 a month and the typical stay in a senior living facility is a little over three years.  

Based on the ever-increasing stay and the monthly expenses, the average married couple should have $673,416 saved to offset the risk of LTC needs in addition to their retirement savings.


Probability and Cost | An industries disservice to the American People

Phil Simoncelli

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Probability and Cost | An industries disservice to the American People
Probability and Cost | An industries disservice to the American People
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